AUKUS is all there is. There is no Plan B.

Written by Peter Leahy - RSL Defence and National Security Committee

Having committed to the AUKUS project Australia can no longer turn back. If AUKUS fails to deliver its promise, it’s hard to see how we could adequately provide for our national security.

AUKUS was an inspired decision. It is the right choice for Australia. Given the geo-strategic situation and the forces arrayed against us, there are no alternatives. So now we must make it work.

We are hostage to what AUKUS will deliver in strategic support, equipment, technology and indigenous industrial capabilities. As such, we are right to be concerned about when the benefits arrive and what they will cost.

Why does Australia need AUKUS? Despite praising ourselves as a ‘creative middle power’, we have struggled and will continue to struggle to adequately provide for our national security. Our rhetoric is louder than the reality.

The defence budget now and in the future is uncertain with delays, indecision and competing priorities. At a time when we need a ‘Guns’ budget we seem to be gearing up for a ‘Butter’ one. Many of our defence SMEs and startups are doing it tough. They are on the edge and wondering how they might survive the next 12 months. The government needs to send clear demand signals if we are to retain a sovereign defence industry capability.

Diplomatically, we are doing okay but have limited heft. Our continuing troubles in South Pacific statecraft, where China is making considerable inroads, is cause for concern. We should be a natural fit for this region but are finding it difficult. More effort is required.

Our military capabilities don’t meet our national security aspirations, and it’s getting worse. It won’t be possible to meet our strategic aims of deterrence and defence without considerable external support. We might as well forget previous notions of self-reliance and unimpeded sovereignty will be a stretch.

We are doing slightly better with soft power. Australia is in the global top ten and an upward mover. But in a crunch, what does soft power really count for? It is nice that people like us, but in a crunch it’s hard power that really counts.

How might the US view our role in AUKUS?

First, we provide a flag on the table for our shared concerns over the growth of autocracies across the globe.

Second, we provide geographic sanctuary. A U.S. study, during the early stages of Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’, saw Australia as a geographic sweet spot for the Indo-Pacific.

Third, we can provide a modest contribution to coalition military operations in our region. Our focus should be on our immediate area of national security interest, not distant adventures, which occupied our efforts during the first 20 years of the Century.

With our geography we can be a secure base for intelligence and surveillance assets, training, space operations, storage, repairs, maintenance and an industrial and manufacturing alternative. During World War II we were known as the “aircraft carrier of the Pacific.” Not many people know that the marching song of the USMC’s 1st Division is Waltzing Matilda. A tribute to Australia for the care and service they gave to Marines while they were recovering and training after their campaigns through the Solomon Islands.

Australia’s major contribution through AUKUS will be in providing strategic depth to US forces otherwise forward deployed in and around the South China Sea. As the U.S. presence, in Australia grows, standby for a discussion about whether we are providing places or bases.

It is not as clear what the UK wants. Clearly, they will get considerable economic and industrial advantage from building the new AUKUS class submarine. A question is how much of the work will be done in Australia and whether the UK will be able to design, build, and deliver a nuclear-powered submarine on time and on budget.

And just what is their interest in and what will be their staying power in the Indo-Pacific? They have an upcoming election, their defence force is in a parlous state, and they face a rampant Russia.

As has been true since Federation, our national security depends almost entirely on a great and powerful friend. In the 21st Century America is that friend and AUKUS is the avenue to our security.

We must make a purposeful contribution to this national endeavour. It will be expensive, and it won’t be easy.

However, our future security will undoubtedly be achieved through AUKUS. We need to enthusiastically embrace it, make it a national priority, and make a positive contribution to its shape, direction, and leadership.

Peter Leahy, a retired Chief of Army, is a Professor at the University of Canberra and a member of the RSL Defence and National Security Committee.